Re: [IAC#RG] Lessons from these 5 election results

Interesting analysis, Sarbajit. While I may not agree with all your points, certainly some good deductions.

But, I have a question here - what happened to all those conspiracy theorists about the EVMs??? Pretty damning result for you chaps, eh?

Also, I would like to add one further reason as to why the Congress keeps winning, despite the corruption:

It more often than not comes down on the side of individual life and liberty - on the side of minority rights against the persecution of the majority, if you want to consider it in that light.

Take the latest case: Section 377 - Sibal, PC, Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi have all come down on the side of personal choices and liberty, and publicly. And, unequivocally. Even Omar Abdullah has done so.

On the other side - you have the deadly silence from BJP leaders. Everyone in hiding.

Why would the young, middle class, urban voters support the BJP???

On 10 December 2013 15:01, Sarbajit Roy <sroy.mb@gmail.com> wrote:

This thread is for serious discussions only in national interest. Personal attacks on authors will result in expulsion.

The 5 poll results show

a) Congress cannot be counted out - everywhere they still have 25% vote share.

b) Beyond its core Hindi speaking states BJP is weak (in Delhi they actually managed to lose 2% vote share despite a anti-Congress Tsunami).

c) BJP has problems with youth. Youth votes come by default in 2 cornered contests against Congress

d) BJP is making inroads / holding on in rural areas now.

e) BJP has to sort out its in-fighting on war footing.

f) Now that upper caste CMs like Shivraj Singh Chauhan (and also Vasundhra Raje) have emerged with a thumping majority in MP/ Rajasthan, the BJP has a golden chance to project a CENTRIST more moderate less aggressive mask to rebuild bridges with parties like Nitish Kumar and other allies like TMC, BJD etc. TO PREVENT A REPEAT OF DELHI 2013 AT NATIONAL LEVEL.where BJP is treated like a pariah untouchable (that BJP may still form or support a govt in Delhi is another matter). The BJP's "untouchability" factor under NaMo is sure to lose it at least 8-13% of votes if LS elections were held today which it can ill afford.

g) BJP's last moment desperate tricks like sting CDs and Anna Hazare statements cut no ice with voters, and actually lost them votes.

h) If AAP forms a government in Delhi with anybody's support - the excluded 3rd corner of the triangle will benefit greatly in the next election. Support to AAP in Delhi is poisoned fruit and everyone knows it.

i) The only party AAP can safely take support from is Congress because the votes AAP got are clearly those of Congress voters fed up with corruption in the party personified by Prince Rahul's aiyaash ways and new crop of young voters whose impressionable heads are filled with 'Rang De Basanti' crap - both of whom will tolerate Kejriwal so long as he is 1) not too anarchistic and is 2) openly anti-BJP and anti-Congress at the same time and 3) keeps the UP builder lobby financing him firmly out of Delhi.

Sarbajit

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