[IAC#RG] More than 50,000 cases in India confirms Health Ministry indirectly

At daily press briefing by PIB, MHA and MOHFW the Health department spokesperson made 2 significant admissions concerning actual rate of .spread of virus with/without containment policy and also lockdown respectively as 24%, 41% and 48% DAILY and had Lockdown not been implemented the number of  CORONA cases would be in excess of 1.2 lakhs and 8.2 lakhs by 15 April 2019.

These statistics and claims have left the  epidemiology  expert community aghast. As you know, our team maintains and publishes the @Lockdownindia projections for detected cases.. From a combined reading of the figures disclosed by MoHFW's Lav Agarwal and the opendata time series statistics we use, it can be safely said that there are at least 50,000 (on lower side) CORONA affected persons in the country (mostly undetected) and this country is situated on a ticking timebomb as they silently spread the virus.

Now the obvious 2 questions

Q1. The Govt says there are only 8,500 or so detected cases but you say there are more than 50,000 ?

A1. 8.500 is the number of cases of patients "detected" and reported by essentially the government labs. The figure of 45,000 "estimated" CORONA cases till yesterday was the Govt's figure. The real reason could be

a) India has the lowest testing rate of less than 150 tests per 1 million population compared to 10,000 tests per million in other countries.

b) Even Pakistan is testing at 3 times our levels.

c) The testing kits India mostly has is based on an obsolete Chinese origin reagent kit which was rejected by the FDA and somehow reached India, whereas Pakistan due to its friendly relations with China managed to get the superior triple test kit which test for 3 different strains of the pathogen. ICMR experts were over-ruled and over-awed to allow this kit.

d) The government of India has tried every delaying tactic to avoid testing. We don't know why they are doing this, but we suspect that, like Trump, they are desperate to get India-Inc open for business even if lakhs of people will eventually die unnecessarily.

e) If India was testing at even Pakistan's level with their kits we would have their infection rate which is 5 times ours per million population, Everything disclosed by Dr. Lav Agarwal indirectly confirms that at least 50,000 persons as on today would have been infected.

Q2: Why are there lesser people in the hospitals / govt quarantine and so few deaths comparatively ? This is not consistent with 50,000+ infections numbers

A2: The death rate is consistent with the figure of 50,000 infections,.We hypothesise that the numbers of patients identified  are comparatively very low due to a combination of possible reasons eg.

a) Thousands of infected cases are being turned away or misdiagnosed at government hospitals in the BIMARU states. Only serious cases are eventually admitted.

b) A large number of infected persons were actively denied testing under old regimes and protocols. We suggest that this was done deliberately because the Government did not want to induce panic in the population. However, it has created a viable population of between 15% to 35% of silent superspreaders who can only be detected by randomly checking huge numbers of the population and testing for anti-bodies in their system. We would need something  like 25 lakhs of this tests to be done in next 14 days to contain the problem.

c) Due to faulty testing / kits large number of false negatives are being generated

d) The data is being collected at State level and India's NCDC is virtually a dead duck functioning only on paper., so the data itself is defective.

e) The government is not answering questions from experts and is imposing censhorship and threats to the experts.

Q3: The Indian government figures are genuine and can be trusted. India is a democracy with RTI regime for instant information dislocssre etc. So who are you to challenge it? (You must be an anti-national if you disbelieve PM Modi)

A3: Picture is 10,000 words. Even a child can see figures for India aree absurd, ublelievable  and qualify as "ouitliers"

regards

Ravi