Thursday, May 23, 2013

Re: [IAC#RG] 2 "polls" say Manmohan tottering, NaMo & Clown Prince rising

Dear Sarbajit Roy

One of the best analysis of ground realities. We, the simple patriots, seems to be in a no win situation!

regards n bw

ravi


On Wed, May 22, 2013 at 2:27 PM, Sarbajit Roy <sroy.mb@gmail.com> wrote:
Dear Lokesh

The reason you are on this IAC list (IAC is an apolitical movement) is so that you can understand how to use your vote tactically to maximum effect since power is not with so called "national parties" any more but has shifted to the states.

Firstly, the Polls offered "binary" choices to Respondents. So if NaMo gets 37% support but MMS gets 12% and RG gets 13%, it does not explain the breakup if MMS is out and it is NaMo versus "Congress"

Secondly, all the polls confirm what IAC has known all along, "NaMo as PM" has a hugely polarising effect, and Muslims and other marginalised votebanks are going to vote tactically. In key States like UP and Bihar, putting NamO in as BJP's PM candidate is going to ensure that Muslim votes go (as a block) either to SP or BSP (in UP) or to RJD(Laloo) in Bihar.

Thirdly, Muslim voters (especially Sunnis) are not fools. In Bihar they have completely seen through the fake fight between Nitish and BJP. They know very well that Nitish Kumar is only acting out that he is opposed to Modi as PM to get the 17% Muslim votes. You should remember that in 2009 NDA only got 37% of the vote in Bihar. Now with a weak Congress the party which will benefit most in Bihar is RJD if NamO is projected. Same will happen in UP, BJP may pick up 3 or 4 extra seats in urban areas but all remaining votes in RURAL will consolidate against BJP's partner.

Fourthly situation in states like Andhra and Maharashtra is also interesting. Andhra is lost to Congress if polls are held now, but Maharashtra under Prithviraj Chavan is going to throw up a massive dividend for Congress due to Muslims if NaMo is projected as BJP's PM candidate - which is why Shiv Sena is also not in favour of NamO as PM.

Fifthly, if LS polls are held now, neither BJP nor Congress will get majority and it will be a 3rd Front Coalition with somebody like Jayalaliltha or Mulayam or Naveen as PM

Sixthly, Congress persons are not fools to get trapped into projecting Clown Prince as PM like BJP desperately wants. Congress (power without responsibility) will go to polls under Sonia and with any dummy like PC (most acceptable non-Gandhi face) to be made as PM "if" they win.

Seventhly, India has always voted on religious and caste lines. RURAL groupings like farmers in OBC / non-OBC category are going to be important "swing" factors this time round. NaMo does not do well here at all, so BJP will have to make tactical alliance with its traditional opponents like Yadavs, Jatavs etc which will fragment the vote further.

Eighthly, all parties (especially BJP) are hoping for a "Wave". At last moment they are expecting something (like a judgment against MMS from Supreme Court in Coalgate) which will swing it for them.

So wait and watch what happens in the October 2013 semi-finals where BJP will do much better and NaMo "wave" will get stronger.

Sarbajit


On Wed, May 22, 2013 at 2:14 AM, Lokesh <30lokesh19@gmail.com> wrote:
Hi All,

I am madly and badly waiting for next General Elections. Can't wait to see BJP come in power again. BJP is the best when it comes to national interest. I am just fedup up with the current Congress Government - HOW MANY SCAMS .. yet they are in Power and dreaming to come again ....

I Vote for BJP AND NARENADRA MODI for PM ... India will Rise AGAIN ....


On Tue, May 21, 2013 at 4:19 PM, Sarbajit Roy <sroy.mb@gmail.com> wrote:
2 polls released on 4th anniversary of UPA-II and also BJP's Parliamentary Affairs meeting.

The first is an Urban Poll conducted on behalf of CNN-IBN with 2,700 respondents in 12 cities.


The 2nd is touted as an all-India Poll with 1.2 lakh respondents across 540 LS constituencies conducted by HeadlinesToday and C-Voter.


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