The answer is 2 fold, I say this as an expert on virii generally.
1. India is doing the WRONG kind of COVID-19 testing presently to answer the herd immunity question. The current tests are only to detect if a person presenting symptoms of cough, fever etc is presently infected with COVID-19 versus say influenza or HI-N1.
2. The above tests are useless when it comes to detecting people who have had COVID19, had a mild reaction and have developed short term immunity and so can "go back to work" (but who can also be the so-called "asymptomatic carriers"). For this purpose we have to conduct WIDESPREAD (millions of) tests for ANTI-BODIES against COVID1-19 to identify such people to determine the level of "herd immunity" in the population Incidentally, "herd immunity" is usually achieved by vaccination .. at the present time there is no approved vaccine.
3. The only questions now, are
A) What have these 21 days been used for by the Govt, do we have MANY MORE drugs, vaccines, ventilators, nurses, ICU technicians, PPE etc ?
B) With rising numbers of infected cases, and with a rule of thumb of 5 undetected cases in the wild showing no symptoms (ie. carriers) for every 1 case detected does the Govt DARE to remove the lockdown or will they look at the economy instead ? It is also clear that at the present rate 2.5 out of 10 detected cases is going to die. Lockdown has not eliminated the spread of COVID in India, It is only maintaining it and slowly tapering it off. Lifting lockdown even for 3 or 4 days is certain to resume the exponential march of the virus and undo all the gains of the projected 21 days of lockdown.
Finally, to show that we are not only anti-Modi, I remind IACians of this CORRUPT politician Arvind Kejriwal who allegedly distributed all 50 lakhs of the N-95 masks disaster stockpiled for Delhi free of cost to school children in Oct 2019 and neglected to replace them. Whereas now the confidential feedback given to me by key people in his health department is these were hardly distributed to school children but were diverted to black marketeers to make a killing in the present crisis to line his pocket.
Dr./Er. Sarbajit Roy
If some people have immunity and they never show the symptoms then we will never know ..Is n't it?
Thanks a lot. In order to understand herd immunity, we must first understand as to how our body takes care of infections. All infectious agents (bacteria, virus, fungi etc) carry distinct molecules on their surfaces (known as antigens) which are identified by our body (immune system) and then the body raises molecules fitting these antigens (known as antibodies). Once the body has countered a specific infectious agent and have raised antibodies against it, it can counter the same agent in future and can protect itself (and thus can be called immune to the agent). This is the concept of vaccination.
Now if a least specific percentage (this percentage depends on type of disease) of a population is immune to a specific infectious agent, we can claim that the whole herd will be protected. As on date, there is no data showing as to what percentage of our population is having immunity to corona virus and thus it cannot be concluded that herd immunity is there or not. It is too primitive to calculate such parameters and thus making an conclusions in the matter.
Regards
Dear Dr. Sandeep
Read my email carefully.. I did not say Herd immunity alone .. Since you already know about it .. No need to explain.. If i am wrong then please correct me and educate everyone here
Regards
Please explain how herd immunity is going to eradicate the virus. I am interested as I think I know some immunology
Dear Sarabjit,
There is also called something called "Herd Immunity" which will slowly eradicate the virus apart from all the steps that various governments are taking ..Why are you so anti-government ..I have been reading your messages ..
Regards
We should all be grateful to Sarabjitji for the timely information that the weapons of the Air Force , Army and Navy do not help fight the Corona virus. We would never have been able to work that out for ourselves !
I might add, nor does empty rhetoric help fight the virus. Instead of harping on what does not work, let us talk about what might work.
We should understand that we are in a warlike situation. The only option now is comply implicitly with the instructions - remain in isolation to the extent possible. For the present, that is the key for survival. Any violations will have severe consequences- it is too early to forget the Nizammuddin incident . The government really has no option but to use strict measures to ensure compliance to minimise the spread of the virus.
For our part, we must help the less privileged sections of the society to whatever extent we can. In Mumbai voluntary organisations have come up and are helping find shelters and food for migrant labourers. I am sure the same is happening in other states also. If we are unable to work actively to help, let us contribute to the agencies that are providing help. And as has been repeated by leaders of all parties, let us pay our domestic servants, drivers, etc for the period that they are unable to work due to the lockdown to try and minimise their hardship.
And most important, let us salute the doctors, nurses, medical staff, police, conservancy workers and all those who are risking their lives so that we can remain safe in isolation. Sadly there are elements who obstruct these selfless persons from fulfilling their duties, and even worse, try to humiliate them. Let us condemn them unanimously.
Anand Gangoli
In one sentence- The corridors of power are powerless. The Army is powerless - all those expensive US small arms which Modi buys from his best buddy Trump are useless. The Airforce is powerless - all those expensive and overpadded Rafale jets (still to be delivered) have no effect on that tiny strand of RNA. The Indian navy of course is saddled with second hand floating rustbuckets and deep diving submarines which (leave no space for social distancing) have a strange habit of catching fire unexpectedly.
Since a picture is worth a thousand words, here is a projection (a very conservative one) from the internet of how the infection will spread in month of April.It grossly understates the extent of the problem since it was re;eased well before the.Nizamuddin episode.
https://twitter.com/LockDownIndia/status/1245003350006890496So any prudent Govt. should plan to extended the lockdown till at least 15th May 2020.
However since human life is cheap in India, the banias will probably ensure that India is
open for business by 1st May 2020, if not sooner.
Hello... So, what's next from the power of corridors..? I mean for how long this lock down is likely to be in place? And if it is going to uplift in phases what could be the likely plan for that? Any thoughts please? Warm regards,
Dear IAC members
Per my discussions today in corridors of power, this is likely to be a rerun of DEMONETISATION. Expect announcements from Friday evening onwards.
Better to be safe than sorry.
1) Stock up on food and other essentials for 1 month
2) Stock up on cash, ATMs may go dry and banks may stop working.
3) Do not depend on digital systems, payment and internet. Today 1 major Telecom player seems likely to shut down due to stock market collapse and adverse SC judgment (or may sell discreetly to the Only Vimal group). Another mobile company in Delhi has shut down 80% of its towers in last 7 days, fired 50% staff and cant even pay electricity bills.
4) Hospitals are likely to fill quickly. In Delhi Kejriwal is likely to direct private hospitals to give free treatment in ICU, which is going to amplify the problem by 10 times.
Please do not circulate this message or forward it to non-members. It is only for our members.
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Dr. Sandeep Kumar Gupta
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