Tuesday, February 11, 2020

[IAC#RG] Delhi elections


                                By Amaresh Misra 

AAP has won 2020 Delhi elections. Credit must go to Arvind Kejriwal, his tactical moves, and his team's work on the ground. 

However, figures reveal a startling picture. In fact, BJP's initial euphoria about winning was not misplaced. 

BJP knew that through vicious polarization, they had managed to dent, at least 6-8% of AAP vote. In case Congress polled 9% plus, as it did in 2015, BJP's 40% (32+8) and AAP's 48-46% would have seen extremely tight contests and a hung assembly, in Delhi. Confident of Congress retaining its vote share, BJP was looking at a scenario where AAP is brought back to its 2013 tally and BJP forms a minority Government. 

Let's revisit the statistics: in 2015, AAP won 67 seats with a vote share of 54.3 %. BJP got 32.3 (3 seats) and Congress 9.7% (0 seats) votes. 

In 2020, AAP won 62 seats. Its vote share dipped to 53.5%--a loss of nearly, 1 %. 

The BJP vote share is 38.5%--a jump of nearly 7 %! The ruling national party got 8 seats. 

Now, if AAP has lost just 1%, from where is the BJP jump coming from? 

This time, Congress polled 4.2% vote, a loss of more than 5% from its 2015 performance. 

So, did the 5% Congress vote shift to BJP? 

Seems so--but, if the fall of exactly 5% in Congress' vote share is seen, broadly, as the 5% Muslim vote, then the scenario stands altered. In the latter case, AAP's vote was actually came down from 54% in 2015, to 48% in 2020--a drop of 6%! And it is the shifting of Congress' Muslim 5% vote, that made AAP reach 53%! 

Another inference--in the altered scenario, the 6% vote share AAP was losing, went to the BJP! 

So, ultimately, while AAP ignored Shaheen Bagh and the happenings in Jamia, it is the shifting of Muslim vote from Congress to AAP, that played the critical and decisive role in AAP's victory.